Plano Market Report - March 2026
What Q1 2026 Revealed About the Plano Housing Market
March closed with 173 single-family home sales and a citywide median DOM of 26 — down from 52 in February and 36 in January. But read that number correctly: roughly 70% of March closings reflect contracts written in February, so the DOM decline is really a February story. Buyers were engaging earlier and faster than the winter months suggested. What’s driving that compression isn’t a broad surge in buyer activity — it’s selectivity. In a market where aged inventory continues to sit, declining DOM signals that buyers are moving quickly on fresh, well-positioned listings and leaving everything else behind. That pattern has implications for sellers throughout spring: new to market with accurate pricing moves. Everything else waits.
Q1 is now in the books: 431 closings across January, February, and March. That’s 18.7% below Q1 2025’s 530 sales — a gap that looks significant until you examine where it came from. Almost the entire decline is concentrated in the high-end and mid-market tiers. Entry-level activity actually grew year-over-year. The story isn’t broad demand weakness — it’s a market that’s stratifying by price point, with different dynamics playing out above and below $750K.
The citywide median decline is a math problem, not a market problem. In Q1 2025, 94 entry-level homes (under $400K) closed alongside 100 high-end and luxury homes (above $750K). In Q1 2026, entry-level closings rose to 111 while high-end and luxury fell to 61. More transactions at the bottom, fewer at the top — the midpoint moves down mechanically. Within-tier prices are modestly softer but not dramatically so; a buyer shopping the same neighborhood at the same price point as last year will find conditions that feel largely familiar. The party most affected by this shift isn’t the buyer; it’s the seller, who faces more competition and a buyer pool less willing to overlook pricing that doesn’t reflect today’s market.
On rates: mortgage rates approached 6% during Q1 before bouncing back. In my 2026 Plano Market Outlook, I wrote that a modest rate dip wouldn’t meaningfully move buyer activity — that the buyers transacting in Plano are driven by life circumstances, not rate optimization. Q1 confirmed that. The brief dip toward 6% didn’t produce a surge in contracts. The spring acceleration you see in March’s 26-day DOM came from seasonal timing, not rate relief.
Plano Price Matrix — March 2026
A ZIP code breakdown of what Plano homes actually sold for in March 2026.
March 2026
| ZIP Code | Homes Sold | Median Price | $/Sq Ft | DOM | Sold/List | Sold/Original |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75023 | 37 (↓ 32%) | $415,000 (↓ 15%) | $216 | 28 | 98.2% | 97.1% |
| 75024 | 20 (↓ 13%) | $636,000 (↓ 16%) | $249 | 26 | 98.3% | 96.2% |
| 75025 | 33 (↓ 6%) | $555,000 (↓ 6%) | $212 | 19 | 99.1% | 98.0% |
| 75074 | 22 (↓ 29%) | $350,000 (↓ 22%) | $215 | 29 | 98.1% | 97.0% |
| 75075 | 32 (↑ 10%) | $484,050 (↓ 5%) | $215 | 27 | 99.1% | 97.0% |
| 75093 | 29 (↓ 41%) | $900,000 (↑ 13%) | $260 | 20 | 98.2% | 97.8% |
| Plano Total | 173 | $519,000 | $220 | 26 | 98.4% | 97.3% |
Last updated: April 2026
Closed Single Family Home Sales, March 1–31, 2026 | YoY = Year-over-Year change vs. March 2025
The Plano Price Matrix is published monthly as part of ongoing market intelligence and is derived from the Plano Market Data Archive.
The Numbers That Need Context
Several figures in that table will look alarming without explanation. None of them tell the story that the raw percentage implies.
Volume down, prices up — and that’s the point. 75093 posted the largest volume decline in Plano (−41%) alongside the only year-over-year price increase (+13.2% to $900,000) and a 20-day DOM that ranks among the tightest in the city. That combination isn’t a contradiction — it’s a quality filter. The homes closing in West Plano are closing fast and at strong prices. What isn’t closing is the overpriced and dated inventory sitting in the active count, inflating months of supply without reflecting actual buyer resistance to well-positioned homes.
More entry-level activity, not lower values. The 22% median decline to $350,000 reflects the same compositional dynamic driving the citywide Q1 story: entry-level homes represented a significantly larger share of transactions than a year ago, pulling the reported median down without signaling deterioration in underlying values. At 29 DOM and 98.1% sold-to-list, this is an active, functional market. Buyers here are engaged and transacting close to asking price — not extracting distress discounts.
The quiet standout. Volume essentially flat (−5.7%), prices held (−5.9%), DOM of 19 is the tightest in the city, and a sold-to-original-list ratio of 98% is the strongest in Plano. No dramatic story here — which is the story. While every other ZIP posted double-digit swings in volume or price, 75025 delivered a clean, disciplined spring market. Sellers priced correctly, buyers engaged quickly.
Volume-led softness, not value collapse. With 37 sales, 75023 led Plano in transaction count despite a 32% volume decline and a 15% median drop to $415,000. When volume falls this sharply, the composition of what closes shifts and the reported median follows. The market here is functioning; it’s doing more of its business at lower price points than a year ago.
The missing luxury closings. Down 13% in volume, down 16% in median to $636,000. The likely explanation mirrors 75093 in reverse — the high-end Legacy and Granite Park closings that drove the median higher in prior months were largely absent in March, leaving the reported median to reflect more of the mid-range 75024 activity. DOM of 26 and sold-to-list of 98.3% suggest a functioning market; the median move is compositional more than fundamental.
The volume winner. The only ZIP to post a year-over-year volume increase (+10.3%). Median down modestly (−5.1% to $484,050), DOM 27, sold-to-original-list 97%. Steady, consistent, no dramatic swings. 75075 reinforces the Central Plano stability story alongside 75025 — the market’s geographic core is absorbing spring inventory efficiently.
A $350K home in East Plano competes differently than a $900K home in West Plano. Before making pricing decisions or submitting offers, understand the specific dynamics in your target neighborhood.
Q1 2026 by Price Tier: What the Median Isn’t Telling You
Q1 2026 closed with 431 total sales across Plano — down 18.7% from 530 in Q1 2025. That gap looks significant. But it isn’t distributed evenly across the market.
The volume decline is almost entirely concentrated in two tiers. High-end sales ($750K–$1.5M) fell 41% year-over-year. Mid-market sales ($400K–$750K) dropped 23%. Meanwhile, entry-level activity ($0–$400K) grew 18%. The market isn’t contracting uniformly — it’s stratifying. Buyers at the entry level are active and absorbing available inventory. The middle and upper tiers are where hesitation lives.
Entry-level homes went from 17.7% of all Q1 transactions in 2025 to 25.8% in Q1 2026 — an 8-point compositional swing in a single year. High-end homes dropped from 16.2% to 11.8%. The mix shifted meaningfully toward lower price points, and the reported citywide median followed.
The chart below shows median sold prices within each tier for Q1 2025 versus Q1 2026. The takeaway isn’t uniformity — it’s divergence.
Entry-level and mid-market show modest softening — down approximately 3% and 2% respectively in Q1 2026 versus Q1 2025. Real, but not dramatic. The high-end tier tells a different story: median prices moved from $858K in Q1 2025 to $935K in Q1 2026, up roughly 9%, even as volume in that tier fell sharply. Prices within the high-end segment aren’t weakening — fewer transactions are closing, and the ones that are closing are the well-priced ones.
That dynamic deserves its own frame.
86 homes sold → 51 homes sold
$857,500 → $935,000
High-end homes posted the steepest volume decline in Plano while simultaneously recording the strongest within-tier price appreciation. Well-priced, turnkey homes in the $750K–$1.5M range are moving, and moving at strong prices. Overpriced and dated inventory in that same tier is sitting, accumulating days on market, and inflating the active supply count without reflecting genuine buyer resistance to quality homes. This is the most important distinction for high-end sellers heading into spring: the market isn’t soft at your price point. The market is precise.
What 4 Days on Market Tells You About the Luxury Tier
A Bob Thompson-built estate within the exclusive guard-gated Cliffs of Gleneagles, offering five bedrooms, five full baths, and unobstructed views of the lake and multiple holes of the Gleneagles Golf Course. Resort-style outdoor living with pool, spa, and waterfall elements. Steps from $2.5B+ in upcoming development along the Dallas North Tollway corridor.
View listing on CompassFour days. At $2.495M, in a market where the active luxury supply count is climbing and months of supply is approaching 5. A generational asset in a hard-to-access community, priced to reflect the market rather than test it. Buyers at this level move fast when the right home appears. They don’t negotiate distress discounts on quality they can’t replicate elsewhere.
That’s the luxury market in Plano right now. Not soft. Selective.
Supply Is Holding — But Not Evenly
We’re starting Q2 with 408 single-family homes for sale — essentially flat since the start of 2026 despite the spring listing season getting underway. That stability isn’t happening by accident.
Through Q1, 239 listings were cancelled or expired — up 23% from 195 during the same period in 2025. Those homeowners move to the sidelines as shadow inventory, watching conditions and ready to re-enter. A wave of re-listings priced at today’s market would be healthy absorption. A wave priced at last year’s expectations adds friction for everyone.
The supply picture stratifies sharply by price point, as it has all year:
Months of supply by price tier, Plano TX, start of Q2 2026. Entry-level supply at 1.4 months reflects genuine scarcity; high-end and luxury figures are distorted by non-competitive active inventory and a historically low Q1 absorption baseline.
Entry-level (<$400K) at 1.4 months remains genuine scarcity. Buyers competing for quality inventory below $400K are still encountering real competition, and the sold-to-list ratios in 75074 confirm it. Mid-market ($400K–$750K) at 2.9 months sits in balanced territory. High-end ($750K–$1.5M) at 5.0 months and Luxury ($1.5M+) at 5.7 months are the numbers most likely to generate alarm — and the most likely to mislead. Both figures carry distortion from non-competitive inventory inflating the active count and from Q1’s suppressed absorption rate as the denominator. The 4-day contract at $2.495M and the 20-day DOM in 75093 are the more reliable signal of what well-priced homes actually face.
With 273 homes pending or under contract in the pipeline today, April closings are tracking toward 220–240 — a meaningful step up from March’s 173 and consistent with the spring acceleration now underway.
Q1 Closed Strong. The Momentum Is Carrying.
Through the end of Q1, new listings are running 6% below 2025’s pace (769 vs. 821) and contracts written are down just 3% (596 vs. 615). Those gaps are notably tighter than where 2026 stood through February, when both metrics were tracking 11–15% below the prior year. March did real work closing the deficit — the spring acceleration showed up in the data, not just in the DOM number.
Net new listings vs. purchase contracts by week, 2026 through Week 14. Week 8 was the inflection point: both lines hit 52, the highest synchronized reading of the year. From Week 10 forward, contracts have consistently met or exceeded net new listings, with Week 14 posting the strongest contract week of the year at 57.
The first five weeks of 2026 were choppy — demand and supply roughly matched but at low volume, with no clear directional signal. Week 8 was the inflection point: net new listings and purchase contracts both hit 52, the highest synchronized reading of the year to that point. From Week 10 forward, contracts have consistently met or exceeded net new listings.
The cumulative read through 14 weeks: new supply is being absorbed efficiently as it enters the market. The volume gap versus Q1 2025 isn’t a demand problem — it’s a stock problem. A pool of aged, non-competitive inventory is sitting outside that absorption cycle, accumulating days on market without generating contracts. Fresh listings priced correctly are finding buyers. Everything else is waiting for a condition that isn’t coming.
What I’m Watching This Spring
March established the baseline. What happens over the next eight weeks will determine whether Q1’s stratified picture — healthy absorption at the entry level, selective movement at the top, a pool of aged inventory on the sidelines — firms up or shifts.
The most important question this spring is whether the pool of available homes is growing or holding. When new listings and contracts track closely week over week, inventory stays range-bound and pricing stays firm. When listings accelerate faster than buyers engage, inventory builds — and that’s what made 2025 feel difficult for so many sellers, even when headline numbers looked reasonable. The weekly absorption data through Week 14 is encouraging. April and May will be the real test.
The 23% year-over-year increase in Q1 cancellations and expirations functioned as a release valve, keeping active inventory from building. But those homeowners don’t disappear — they move to the sidelines as shadow inventory, watching conditions and ready to re-enter. Whether that pool grows or starts converting to successful sales is worth tracking. A wave of re-listings priced at market would be healthy. A wave priced at last year’s expectations would add friction.
More than any single price metric, the sold-to-list ratio tells me where leverage sits in the transaction. March’s citywide 98.4% sold-to-list is healthy — sellers are getting close to asking, but buyers have room to negotiate. If that number firms toward 99%+ as spring demand absorbs fresh inventory, conditions are tightening. If it softens toward 97% or below, buyers are gaining ground. I’ll be tracking this in the weekly updates through May.
For real-time readings on all three, the weekly Plano market updates track these indicators as they develop. The next monthly Price Matrix covering April will have the first full spring picture.
